Saturday, June 30, 2012

Niall Ferguson - on the new world order pt3

Recovery Resources - Niall Ferguson - on the new world order pt3.
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Niall Ferguson - on the new world order pt3 Video Clips. Duration : 9.37 Mins.


We had a good read. For the benefit of yourself. Be sure to read to the end. I want you to get good knowledge from Recovery Resources . 1 Mar 2010 [On the sustainability of the US recovery versus the global recovery] I think there is a global economic recovery which looks more sustainable that the US recovery. Most of the US recovery is in the form of stimulus from government. I don't think this is a sustainable recovery yet. The global recovery is more interesting. Asian economies are growing much faster than anybody predicted 6 months ago. Chinese growth is at an annual rate of 10%. China's stimulus has worked better. You can have Keynesian policies more easily in a controlled economy. Keynes said deficit finance will work better in a totalitarian economy. That's still true today. [On the US consumer's inability to push growth forward anymore] I'm relatively pessimistic on how fast growth is going to be in the US. My guess is that the economy will grow in real terms at close to 2% over the next few years. The US consumer cannot bounce back in the way we've been used to seeing in previous recessions. We've reached the limits of leverage on household balance sheets. When you've got debts of 120% of personal disposable income there's no way you can go back to the shopping mall. So if the US consumer is essentially going to behave in a thrifty way there is no way the US economy can grow at the rates we've seen in the past. There's no way you can have the old style debt-fuelled consumption once you've reached this level of indebtedness. That game is over. [On global rebalancing] We are in the process of a ...
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